Pedigree Handicapping is a new frontier in the world of handicapping that has been dominated by speed figures, pace calculations, and, more recently, trainer statistics.  Pedigree information should be viewed as a basic, but valuable, reference tool to supplement traditional handicapping.

 

In May of 1995 I began gathering data on winning performances sorted by sire.  This data gathering process initially was done by hand and I began to see trends develop.  Through this intimate relationship I gained a feel for the data and how a database should be constructed.  My database now contains information on more than 120,000 winning performances, although I only use the most recent three years of data because I have seen how dramatically the game changes from year to year.

 

Foals are generally assumed to possess the qualities of their sire and dam but statistics could be used to verify or disprove this assumption.  I have used my statistics to quiz fellow handicappers on their knowledge of sire statistics.  Many times they were able to identify who is best suited for a given distance and other times they could not.  I have developed simple straightforward statistics that give the handicapper easy access to looking at previous winners by a sire and this is the goal of my business, BREEDING WINNERS.  With the availability of these sire statistics, it no longer matters what racing qualities the sire had; the handicapper’s concern is for what is happening now.

 

 

BREEDING WINNERS is a comprehensive study of winning performances by foals of a sire at the major racing venues in the United States.  Understanding as many variables as possible that make up a winning performance will yield valuable information towards predicting the contenders of a given race.  The theory is that foals by the same sire will win races under similar conditions.  For example, according to my database, two year old foals by Allen’s Prospect break their maiden off a long layoff (greater than 60 days) at 83% above the average. To complete the picture, we could look at what distance and class level these winners occurred.  81% of two year old maiden winners by Allen’s Prospect came at six furlongs or less and 74% at a purse of between $11,000 and $30,000.  We now have an accurate winning profile for these two year old maidens by Allen’s Prospect.

 

Today’s handicapper needs tools that are accurate and fast to use.  BREEDING WINNERS compiles all of the sire statistics for each race entrant into an easy to read RACE REPORT.  An example of a RACE REPORT is presented in Figure 1.

 

Figure 1.

 

When a handicapper wants to know who is best suited for the distance or class level, or is running with an advantageous layoff, the RACE REPORT has the facts at his/her fingertips. 

 

Many people would argue that a winning percentage (the number of winners divided by the total number of starters) is more helpful than studying only the winners.  My argument is that there are infinite reasons why a horse may lose a race and therefore not much can be learned from including the losing performances in the statistics.  The conditions that produce a winning performance, such as the Allen’s Prospect example, must have been favorable and are worthy of analysis.

 

 

Handicappers have had little pedigree information available to them in the past.  Preference for the mud was among the first statistics presented and most handicappers are familiar with the top mud sires, such as Relaunch.  It would seem logical that if the statistic is based on breeding that it should always hold true.  My work has demonstrated that this is not always the case.  Currently only 13.1% of dirt winners by Relaunch came on a wet track while 16.4% of all dirt races were on a wet track, and therefore, Relaunch should no longer be considered a superior mud sire.  Obviously there is a need to stay up-to-date with the breeding statistics and, thankfully, the Internet makes that possible.

 

 

 

BREEDING WINNERS also offers lists of top sires in a number of categories.  Concorde’s Tune has produced 76 dirt winners and 65 (85.5%) of them came at a distance of 6 furlongs or less.  Glitterman has produced 18 turf winners and 17 (94.4%) of those turf wins came at a distance of less than a mile.  Quiet American has produced 14 turf winners and 5 (35.7%) of them came on a turf course that was not firm.  This non-firm turf statistic has been among the best at finding value plays.  Additional lists include:  top mud sires; top first time starter sires for two year olds; top first time starter sires for older maidens; maturity factor.  The maturity factor looks at the number of winners a sire produces at age 2 after breaking their maiden.

 

The next challenge for me is to try and develop a formula for boiling all the statistics down to one number just as the Beyer Figure does for performance.  This “Breeding Winners Number” will focus on the three independent variables, distance, purse, and layoff in an effort to try and reflect which entrant is running under conditions most similar to previous winners by the sire.

 

The goal for the handicapper is to throw the percentages in their favor.  BREEDING WINNERS offers many statistics that will help the handicapper have a better understanding of how foals by a sire have won their races over the most recent three years.  Of course no one angle works all the time and that is at the heart of what intrigues the handicapper.  My sire statistics are factual information that are open to interpretation, just like the past performances.  I invite all handicappers to my web site, www.breedingwinners.com, to add to their arsenal of handicapping tools.